Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 1°C or below on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $97 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$97.17
-$0.37
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $30.26 | $30.16 | -$0.1 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $27.42 | $27.31 | -$0.11 | 29% 876-2138 (3014) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.9 | -$0.08 | 30% 2667-6201 (8868) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $10.96 | $10.92 | -$0.04 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $8.92 | $8.89 | -$0.04 | 78% 326-91 (417) |
Invested
$30.26
Value
$30.16
PnL
-$0.1
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
Invested
$27.42
Value
$27.31
PnL
-$0.11
Record
29%
876-2138 (3014)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.9
PnL
-$0.08
Record
30%
2667-6201 (8868)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$10.96
Value
$10.92
PnL
-$0.04
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
Invested
$8.92
Value
$8.89
PnL
-$0.04
Record
78%
326-91 (417)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.