Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C or higher on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $376 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$375.61
-$1.67
99.9¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $299.7 | $298.35 | -$1.35 | 99% 236-2 (238) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $27.42 | $27.3 | -$0.12 | 14% 60-372 (432) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.89 | -$0.09 | 30% 2667-6201 (8868) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $10.96 | $10.91 | -$0.05 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $10.3 | $10.25 | -$0.05 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $8.92 | $8.91 | -$0.01 | 78% 326-91 (417) |
Invested
$299.7
Value
$298.35
PnL
-$1.35
Record
99%
236-2 (238)
Invested
$27.42
Value
$27.3
PnL
-$0.12
Record
14%
60-372 (432)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.89
PnL
-$0.09
Record
30%
2667-6201 (8868)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$10.96
Value
$10.91
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
Invested
$10.3
Value
$10.25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
Invested
$8.92
Value
$8.91
PnL
-$0.01
Record
78%
326-91 (417)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.