Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on November 12?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 100¢ · $162 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 11%

Total Value

$162.19

Combined PnL

-$54.68

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$159.12

Total Shares160

Combined PnL-$0.72

Yes8 traders

Total Value$3.07

Total Shares558

Combined PnL-$53.96

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$159.84	$159.12	-$0.72	99% 398-3 (401)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$18.98	$1.15	-$17.83	61% 1153-751 (1904)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.22	$0.44	-$6.78	51% 4781-4575 (9356)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7	$0.42	-$6.58	47% 484-554 (1038)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$35.78	$0.35	-$8.19	32% 2924-6249 (9173)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.11	$0.31	-$4.8	28% 530-1372 (1902)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.82	$0.17	-$2.65	39% 3421-5409 (8830)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$60.11	$0.17	-$5.39	26% 866-2483 (3349)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.92	$0.06	-$1.74	79% 502-133 (635)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$159.84

Value

$159.12

PnL

-$0.72

Record

99%

398-3 (401)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.98

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$17.83

Record

61%

1153-751 (1904)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.22

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$6.78

Record

51%

4781-4575 (9356)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$6.58

Record

47%

484-554 (1038)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.78

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$8.19

Record

32%

2924-6249 (9173)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.11

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$4.8

Record

28%

530-1372 (1902)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.82

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$2.65

Record

39%

3421-5409 (8830)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.11

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$5.39

Record

26%

866-2483 (3349)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.92

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.74

Record

79%

502-133 (635)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.