Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $253 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$253.3
$0.62
99.4¢ → 98.8¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $89.66 | $89.86 | +$0.2 | 41% 299-433 (732) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $60.84 | $60.96 | +$0.12 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $45.5 | $45.72 | +$0.21 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.92 | $29.88 | -$0.04 | 27% 912-2510 (3422) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $14.09 | $14.16 | +$0.07 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $12.67 | $12.73 | +$0.06 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
Invested
$89.66
Value
$89.86
PnL
+$0.2
Record
41%
299-433 (732)
Invested
$60.84
Value
$60.96
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$45.5
Value
$45.72
PnL
+$0.21
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
Invested
$29.92
Value
$29.88
PnL
-$0.04
Record
27%
912-2510 (3422)
balthazar<$100Invested
$14.09
Value
$14.16
PnL
+$0.07
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Invested
$12.67
Value
$12.73
PnL
+$0.06
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.