Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 75¢ · $66 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$65.52
-$8.99
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 73.6¢ | $18.16 | $19.01 | +$0.85 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $18.4 | $15.4 | -$3 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 92.8¢ | $18.55 | $15.4 | -$3.15 | 90% 28-3 (31) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $12.27 | $9.84 | -$2.43 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $5.88 | $4.71 | -$1.16 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $1.15 | -$0.1 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
Invested
$18.16
Value
$19.01
PnL
+$0.85
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$18.4
Value
$15.4
PnL
-$3
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$18.55
Value
$15.4
PnL
-$3.15
Record
90%
28-3 (31)
Invested
$12.27
Value
$9.84
PnL
-$2.43
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Invested
$5.88
Value
$4.71
PnL
-$1.16
Record
86%
32-5 (37)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.15
PnL
-$0.1
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.