Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 4°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 89¢ · $50 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$49.85
$7.3
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 68.9¢ | $16.01 | $20.03 | +$4.02 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 86.1¢ | $12.25 | $12.26 | +$0.01 | 51% 4240-4094 (8334) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 65.6¢ | $8.38 | $11.01 | +$2.63 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $4.04 | $5.27 | +$1.23 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $1.87 | $1.29 | -$0.58 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$16.01
Value
$20.03
PnL
+$4.02
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
balthazar<$100Invested
$12.25
Value
$12.26
PnL
+$0.01
Record
51%
4240-4094 (8334)
Invested
$8.38
Value
$11.01
PnL
+$2.63
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Invested
$4.04
Value
$5.27
PnL
+$1.23
Record
86%
32-5 (37)
Invested
$1.87
Value
$1.29
PnL
-$0.58
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.