Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 3°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $347 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$346.79
$1.22
99.3¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 123987456 | Noavg 99¢ | $163.35 | $164.34 | +$1 | 93% 37-3 (40) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $79.71 | $79.95 | +$0.24 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $45.76 | $45.72 | -$0.05 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.88 | -$0.03 | 18% 54-241 (295) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $14.15 | $14.16 | +$0.01 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $12.69 | $12.73 | +$0.04 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
Invested
$163.35
Value
$164.34
PnL
+$1
Record
93%
37-3 (40)
Invested
$79.71
Value
$79.95
PnL
+$0.24
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$45.76
Value
$45.72
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.88
PnL
-$0.03
Record
18%
54-241 (295)
balthazar<$100Invested
$14.15
Value
$14.16
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Invested
$12.69
Value
$12.73
PnL
+$0.04
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.