Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on November 10?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 95¢ · $259 held · ends Nov 10

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$259.16

Combined PnL

-$0.11

Smart Money Entry

92.4¢ → 94.7¢

+2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$219.19

Total Shares225

Combined PnL+$11.68

Yes1 trader

Total Value$39.97

Total Shares332

Combined PnL-$11.79

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$38.33	$40.98	+$2.65	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.8¢	$51.76	$39.97	-$11.79	21% 132-485 (617)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 94.8¢	$31.21	$32.21	+$0.99	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 85¢	$24.36	$28.02	+$3.66	11% 35-270 (305)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$22.92	$22.95	+$0.86	51% 197-186 (383)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 91.3¢	$20.33	$21.78	+$1.46	89% 409-53 (462)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$19.35	$19.56	+$0.21	30% 174-414 (588)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$16.87	$17.6	+$0.74	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$11.69	$11.87	+$0.19	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$10.49	$10.88	+$0.39	28% 153-400 (553)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$6.79	$7.27	+$0.48	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$6	$6.07	+$0.08	34% 150-294 (444)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$38.33

Value

$40.98

PnL

+$2.65

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.76

Value

$39.97

PnL

-$11.79

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$31.21

Value

$32.21

PnL

+$0.99

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$24.36

Value

$28.02

PnL

+$3.66

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$22.92

Value

$22.95

PnL

+$0.86

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$20.33

Value

$21.78

PnL

+$1.46

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$19.35

Value

$19.56

PnL

+$0.21

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$16.87

Value

$17.6

PnL

+$0.74

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$11.69

Value

$11.87

PnL

+$0.19

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$10.49

Value

$10.88

PnL

+$0.39

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$6.79

Value

$7.27

PnL

+$0.48

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

Value

$6.07

PnL

+$0.08

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.9%

94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.