Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (89%). 12 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on November 10?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 12¢ · $99 held · ends Nov 10

Yes89¢No11¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$98.67

Combined PnL

-$33.41

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$67.13

Total Shares346

Combined PnL-$39.81

Yes2 traders

Total Value$31.54

Total Shares34

Combined PnL+$6.39

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 24.7¢	$77.94	$50.95	-$5.3	21% 132-485 (617)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 71.5¢	$23.07	$28.88	+$5.8	89% 409-53 (462)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 33.2¢	$13.9	$3.77	-$10.13	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 26.1¢	$9.13	$3.15	-$5.98	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$6.65	$2.67	+$0.59	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 21.2¢	$6.26	$2.65	-$3.61	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$6.65	$1.71	-$4.94	36% 462-806 (1268)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$5.4	$1.62	-$3.78	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$4.08	$0.77	-$3.31	68% 1961-927 (2888)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$1.54	$0.69	-$0.85	67% 3785-1901 (5686)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$0.94	$0.47	-$0.47	28% 153-400 (553)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$0.36	$0.46	+$0.1	30% 174-414 (588)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$1.51	$0.45	-$1.06	31% 163-361 (524)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$0.91	$0.43	-$0.48	34% 150-294 (444)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$77.94

Value

$50.95

PnL

-$5.3

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.07

Value

$28.88

PnL

+$5.8

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$13.9

Value

$3.77

PnL

-$10.13

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$9.13

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$5.98

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.65

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$0.59

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$6.26

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$3.61

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$6.65

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$4.94

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$3.78

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$4.08

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$3.31

Record

68%

1961-927 (2888)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$1.54

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$0.85

Record

67%

3785-1901 (5686)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.94

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$0.47

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.46

PnL

+$0.1

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.51

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$1.06

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$0.48

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.