Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on November 10?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 91¢ · $822 held · ends Nov 10

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$822.34

Combined PnL

$139.26

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 91¢

+22% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$820.59

Total Shares849

Combined PnL+$140.31

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.76

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$1.05

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 73.9¢	$494.96	$593.87	+$98.91	21% 132-485 (617)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 74.5¢	$31.21	$39.38	+$8.18	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 78.2¢	$27.37	$32.9	+$5.53	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 72¢	$26.04	$32.71	+$6.67	89% 409-53 (462)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74.1¢	$26.17	$32.2	+$6.03	51% 197-186 (383)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 70¢	$20.06	$26.93	+$6.88	4% 14-366 (380)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 75.3¢	$16.19	$20.21	+$4.01	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 85.8¢	$13.79	$15.11	+$1.32	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 89¢	$9.09	$9.61	+$0.51	28% 153-400 (553)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 82¢	$6.09	$6.98	+$0.89	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 85¢	$5.3	$5.86	+$0.56	67% 3785-1901 (5686)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 78¢	$4.01	$4.83	+$0.82	31% 163-361 (524)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$2.81	$1.76	-$1.05	68% 1961-927 (2888)

241532532432

Invested

$494.96

Value

$593.87

PnL

+$98.91

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$31.21

Value

$39.38

PnL

+$8.18

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$27.37

Value

$32.9

PnL

+$5.53

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$26.04

Value

$32.71

PnL

+$6.67

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.17

Value

$32.2

PnL

+$6.03

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$20.06

Value

$26.93

PnL

+$6.88

Record

14-366 (380)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$16.19

Value

$20.21

PnL

+$4.01

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$13.79

Value

$15.11

PnL

+$1.32

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$9.09

Value

$9.61

PnL

+$0.51

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$6.09

Value

$6.98

PnL

+$0.89

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.86

PnL

+$0.56

Record

67%

3785-1901 (5686)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.01

Value

$4.83

PnL

+$0.82

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.81

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$1.05

Record

68%

1961-927 (2888)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.