Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 31?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 27¢ · $280 held · ends Oct 31

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$279.86

Combined PnL

$35.42

Smart Money Entry

21.5¢ → 27¢

+26% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$170.7

Total Shares627

Combined PnL+$35.99

No4 traders

Total Value$109.16

Total Shares131

Combined PnL-$0.57

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 23.3¢	$110.73	$140.47	+$29.74	47% 628-714 (1342)
RO rocky42019<$100	Noavg 80¢	$63.2	$63.2	+$0	42% 1709-2333 (4042)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.9¢	$23.98	$30.22	+$6.25	59% 1714-1183 (2897)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 80¢	$21.6	$20	-$0.74	21% 295-1086 (1381)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$13.08	$13.16	+$0.08	57% 13509-10335 (23844)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 79.4¢	$12.71	$12.8	+$0.09	50% 1747-1730 (3477)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$110.73

Value

$140.47

PnL

+$29.74

Record

47%

628-714 (1342)

rocky42019<$100

Invested

$63.2

Value

$63.2

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

1709-2333 (4042)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.98

Value

$30.22

PnL

+$6.25

Record

59%

1714-1183 (2897)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$21.6

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.74

Record

21%

295-1086 (1381)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$13.08

Value

$13.16

PnL

+$0.08

Record

57%

13509-10335 (23844)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$12.71

Value

$12.8

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

1747-1730 (3477)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.0%

27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$244.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

344.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.