Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 31?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 12¢ · $72 held · ends Oct 31

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$71.59

Combined PnL

-$138.78

Smart Money Entry

43.9¢ → 12¢

-73% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$71.59

Total Shares648

Combined PnL-$138.78

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Yesavg 45.7¢	$139.14	$40.63	-$98.51	55% 410-334 (744)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$48	$16.5	-$31.5	20% 312-1280 (1592)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 44.4¢	$7.52	$10.45	+$2.93	59% 1808-1259 (3067)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 45.2¢	$28.44	$4.01	-$11.69	42% 1717-2340 (4057)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$139.14

Value

$40.63

PnL

-$98.51

Record

55%

410-334 (744)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48

Value

$16.5

PnL

-$31.5

Record

20%

312-1280 (1592)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.52

Value

$10.45

PnL

+$2.93

Record

59%

1808-1259 (3067)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.44

Value

$4.01

PnL

-$11.69

Record

42%

1717-2340 (4057)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.6%

12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$637.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

737.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.