Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 30?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 99¢ · $288 held · ends Oct 30

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$287.69

Combined PnL

$23.58

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 99.3¢

+74% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$269.04

Total Shares305

Combined PnL+$22.95

No3 traders

Total Value$18.65

Total Shares157

Combined PnL+$0.63

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 51.9¢	$78.79	$130.44	+$3.87	56% 358-287 (645)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 68.3¢	$76.05	$74.47	-$0.31	21% 295-1102 (1397)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 56.5¢	$44.74	$64.13	+$19.39	59% 1723-1189 (2912)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 14.8¢	$18.19	$10.11	+$1.47	57% 13544-10382 (23926)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$4.87	$5.54	+$0.66	53% 6464-5663 (12127)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$4.5	$3	-$1.5	18% 525-2351 (2876)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$78.79

Value

$130.44

PnL

+$3.87

Record

56%

358-287 (645)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.05

Value

$74.47

PnL

-$0.31

Record

21%

295-1102 (1397)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.74

Value

$64.13

PnL

+$19.39

Record

59%

1723-1189 (2912)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$18.19

Value

$10.11

PnL

+$1.47

Record

57%

13544-10382 (23926)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$4.87

Value

$5.54

PnL

+$0.66

Record

53%

6464-5663 (12127)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

PnL

-$1.5

Record

18%

525-2351 (2876)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.