Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 29?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 40¢ · $355 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$354.66
-$27.93
37.6¢ → 40¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 43.8¢ | $121.93 | $116.87 | -$5.06 | 60% 1629-1089 (2718) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $83.8 | $103.35 | +$19.55 | 47% 600-687 (1287) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Yesavg 33¢ | $122.7 | $76.22 | -$46.48 | 55% 293-244 (537) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 67.1¢ | $36.03 | $28.36 | -$4.39 | 25% 283-869 (1152) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $15.75 | $24.56 | +$8.8 | 50% 1684-1666 (3350) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 56.5¢ | $5.65 | $5.3 | -$0.35 | 53% 6367-5579 (11946) |
Invested
$121.93
Value
$116.87
PnL
-$5.06
Record
60%
1629-1089 (2718)
Invested
$83.8
Value
$103.35
PnL
+$19.55
Record
47%
600-687 (1287)
Invested
$122.7
Value
$76.22
PnL
-$46.48
Record
55%
293-244 (537)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$36.03
Value
$28.36
PnL
-$4.39
Record
25%
283-869 (1152)
Invested
$15.75
Value
$24.56
PnL
+$8.8
Record
50%
1684-1666 (3350)
Invested
$5.65
Value
$5.3
PnL
-$0.35
Record
53%
6367-5579 (11946)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.