Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 100¢ · $346 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$345.71
$101.28
25.5¢ → 99.6¢
+291% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 37¢ | $77 | $174.66 | +$97.65 | 60% 1652-1111 (2763) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $8.39 | $130.48 | +$62.44 | 55% 310-252 (562) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 63.8¢ | $41.27 | $39.39 | -$0.31 | 24% 285-919 (1204) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 60.1¢ | $83.71 | $0.59 | -$58.82 | 57% 13319-10177 (23496) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.1¢ | $0.22 | $0.54 | +$0.32 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
Invested
$77
Value
$174.66
PnL
+$97.65
Record
60%
1652-1111 (2763)
Invested
$8.39
Value
$130.48
PnL
+$62.44
Record
55%
310-252 (562)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$41.27
Value
$39.39
PnL
-$0.31
Record
24%
285-919 (1204)
Invested
$83.71
Value
$0.59
PnL
-$58.82
Record
57%
13319-10177 (23496)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.22
Value
$0.54
PnL
+$0.32
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.