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No
balthazarCTR<$100NoYesYesYesYesYes
Istaroth<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 28?
Resolved Yes. 25% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
No 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$143.58
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares208
Combined PnL-$143.58
Yes6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
No — 25%Yes — 75%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Noavg 69.3¢ | $143.79 | — | -$143.58 | 54% 268-225 (493) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 25.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20693-13116 (33809) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Yesavg 17.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1654-1642 (3296) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6330-5547 (11877) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Yesavg 28.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 47% 585-672 (1257) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13143-10017 (23160) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Yesavg 30.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 60% 1599-1056 (2655) |
Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 29.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 26% 281-787 (1068) |
HE
HellYeahTraderCTRInvested
$143.79
Value
—
PnL
-$143.58
Record
54%
268-225 (493)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20693-13116 (33809)
HE
hello.67<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1654-1642 (3296)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6330-5547 (11877)
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
585-672 (1257)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13143-10017 (23160)
24
241532532432<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
1599-1056 (2655)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
281-787 (1068)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x997a2297...5b467d
Slug
highest-temperature-in-guangzhou-on-october-28-2026-32c