Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 28?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 53¢ · $392 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$392.24
$4.56
50.9¢ → 53¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Yesavg 53.2¢ | $191.8 | $189.8 | -$0.25 | 29% 280-697 (977) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $91.48 | $84.99 | -$6.49 | 54% 244-212 (456) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Yesavg 50.2¢ | $59.38 | $63.24 | +$3.86 | 61% 1566-1014 (2580) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $30.56 | $37.86 | +$7.29 | 53% 6286-5517 (11803) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $16.2 | $16.35 | +$0.15 | 61% 20619-13064 (33683) |
IstarothInvested
$191.8
Value
$189.8
PnL
-$0.25
Record
29%
280-697 (977)
Invested
$91.48
Value
$84.99
PnL
-$6.49
Record
54%
244-212 (456)
Invested
$59.38
Value
$63.24
PnL
+$3.86
Record
61%
1566-1014 (2580)
Invested
$30.56
Value
$37.86
PnL
+$7.29
Record
53%
6286-5517 (11803)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$16.2
Value
$16.35
PnL
+$0.15
Record
61%
20619-13064 (33683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.