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Yes
balthazar<$100NoNoNoNo
Istaroth<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 28?
Resolved No. 17% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$56.31
Smart Money Signal
Yes
1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares268
Combined PnL-$56.31
No5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 17%No — 83%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $56.31 | — | -$56.31 | 54% 268-225 (493) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 89.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20693-13116 (33809) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Noavg 70.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 47% 585-672 (1257) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 81.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13143-10017 (23160) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | — | — | +$0 | 60% 1599-1056 (2655) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 79.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 26% 281-787 (1068) |
HE
HellYeahTraderCTR<$100Invested
$56.31
Value
—
PnL
-$56.31
Record
54%
268-225 (493)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20693-13116 (33809)
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
585-672 (1257)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13143-10017 (23160)
24
241532532432<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
1599-1056 (2655)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
281-787 (1068)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x905f111c...c24dd0
Slug
highest-temperature-in-guangzhou-on-october-28-2026-30c