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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C or higher on November 9?

Resolved No. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.18

Combined PnL

-$9.56

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$0.18

Total Shares0

Combined PnL+$0

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares105

Combined PnL-$9.56

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$0.18	$0.18	+$0	43% 5588-7271 (12859)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.56	—	-$9.56	47% 47657-54243 (101900)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	—	—	+$0	43% 18729-24498 (43227)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99¢	—	—	+$0	30% 2897-6613 (9510)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	50% 66284-66816 (133100)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	35% 1183-2186 (3369)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	46% 6200-7414 (13614)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	—	—	+$0	22% 3495-12142 (15637)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99¢	—	—	+$0	46% 6652-7812 (14464)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

5588-7271 (12859)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$9.56

Value

—

PnL

-$9.56

Record

47%

47657-54243 (101900)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18729-24498 (43227)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2897-6613 (9510)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

66284-66816 (133100)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

1183-2186 (3369)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6200-7414 (13614)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

22%

3495-12142 (15637)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6652-7812 (14464)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0fd2d268...ab6afd

Slug

highest-temperature-in-guangzhou-on-november-9-2026-28corhigher

Traders in this Market

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

No — $0.18

qwen300.fund

Yes — $0

Lucerys

Yes — $0

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

No — $0

cigarettes

No — $0

anothercoin

Yes — $0

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

No — $0

luciebot

Yes — $0

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

No — $0

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