Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C on November 9?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 100¢ · $653 held · ends Nov 9

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$652.76

Combined PnL

-$39.34

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 100¢

+37% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$620.34

Total Shares760

Combined PnL-$17.78

Yes2 traders

Total Value$32.42

Total Shares226

Combined PnL-$21.56

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 71.8¢	$346.7	$335.03	-$11.66	21% 929-3491 (4420)
HE hello.67	Noavg 73.9¢	$114.95	$109.7	-$5.25	25% 2355-7014 (9369)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 78.3¢	$60.53	$56.25	-$4.28	55% 25974-21276 (47250)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 77.4¢	$48.79	$52.45	+$11.4	52% 8995-8175 (17170)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$51.84	$32.4	-$19.44	57% 903-692 (1595)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 69.8¢	$36.84	$26.4	-$10.45	50% 65492-65807 (131299)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$5.01	$17.58	+$1.28	43% 5541-7239 (12780)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 79.7¢	$8.85	$8.1	-$0.74	50% 9315-9358 (18673)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	$6.57	$7.42	+$0.85	46% 6881-8137 (15018)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$6.33	$7.39	+$1.06	30% 2853-6533 (9386)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$2.14	$0.02	-$2.12	57% 24691-18283 (42974)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$346.7

Value

$335.03

PnL

-$11.66

Record

21%

929-3491 (4420)

hello.67

Invested

$114.95

Value

$109.7

PnL

-$5.25

Record

25%

2355-7014 (9369)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$60.53

Value

$56.25

PnL

-$4.28

Record

55%

25974-21276 (47250)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$48.79

Value

$52.45

PnL

+$11.4

Record

52%

8995-8175 (17170)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.84

Value

$32.4

PnL

-$19.44

Record

57%

903-692 (1595)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$36.84

Value

$26.4

PnL

-$10.45

Record

50%

65492-65807 (131299)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.01

Value

$17.58

PnL

+$1.28

Record

43%

5541-7239 (12780)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$8.85

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$0.74

Record

50%

9315-9358 (18673)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$6.57

Value

$7.42

PnL

+$0.85

Record

46%

6881-8137 (15018)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.33

Value

$7.39

PnL

+$1.06

Record

30%

2853-6533 (9386)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.14

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.12

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.