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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 21°C on November 9?

Resolved No. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Yes 75%

Total Value

$38

Combined PnL

-$29.76

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders
Total Value$38
Total Shares38
Combined PnL+$0.3
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares322
Combined PnL-$30.07
No — 55%Yes — 45%
1D
1DVSBSTD<$100
No

Invested

$37.71

Value

$38

PnL

+$0.3

Record

97%

59786-1869 (61655)

0X
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$7.55

Value

—

PnL

-$8.34

Record

43%

5588-7271 (12859)

QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$15.02

Value

—

PnL

-$15.02

Record

47%

47657-54243 (101900)

LU
luciebotCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$6.7

Value

—

PnL

-$6.7

Record

22%

3495-12142 (15637)

LucerysCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18729-24498 (43227)

0X
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2897-6613 (9510)

CI
cigarettes<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

66284-66816 (133100)

AN
anothercoinCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

1183-2186 (3369)

0X
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6200-7414 (13614)

0X
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6903-8164 (15067)

0X
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100
No

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

16770-7378 (24148)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x71211393...2cf135
Slug
highest-temperature-in-guangzhou-on-november-9-2026-21c

Traders in this Market

1D

1DVSBSTD

No — $38

+$0.3
0X

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

CTR

Yes — $0

-$8.34
QW

qwen300.fund

CTR

Yes — $0

-$15.02
LU

luciebot

CTR

Yes — $0

-$6.7

Lucerys

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0
0X

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

No — $0

+$0
CI

cigarettes

No — $0

+$0
AN

anothercoin

CTR

Yes — $0

+$0
0X

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

No — $0

+$0
0X

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

No — $0

+$0
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