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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 20°C on November 9?

Resolved No. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Yes 75%

Total Value

$100

Combined PnL

-$29.97

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$100

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$0.1

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares322

Combined PnL-$30.07

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$100	+$0.1	97% 59786-1869 (61655)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.34	—	-$8.34	43% 5588-7271 (12859)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.02	—	-$15.02	47% 47657-54243 (101900)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.7	—	-$6.7	22% 3495-12142 (15637)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.5¢	—	—	+$0	43% 18729-24498 (43227)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	30% 2897-6613 (9510)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	35% 1183-2186 (3369)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	50% 9346-9412 (18758)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	46% 6652-7812 (14464)

Invested

$99.9

Value

$100

PnL

+$0.1

Record

97%

59786-1869 (61655)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$8.34

Value

—

PnL

-$8.34

Record

43%

5588-7271 (12859)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$15.02

Value

—

PnL

-$15.02

Record

47%

47657-54243 (101900)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$6.7

Value

—

PnL

-$6.7

Record

22%

3495-12142 (15637)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18729-24498 (43227)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2897-6613 (9510)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

1183-2186 (3369)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

9346-9412 (18758)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6652-7812 (14464)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9684d4f3...231d88

Slug

highest-temperature-in-guangzhou-on-november-9-2026-20c

Traders in this Market

1DVSBSTD

No — $100

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Yes — $0

qwen300.fund

Yes — $0

luciebot

Yes — $0

Lucerys

Yes — $0

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

No — $0

anothercoin

Yes — $0

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

No — $0

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

No — $0

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