Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on November 7?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 100¢ · $165 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$164.99
-$13.14
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $164.84 | $164.92 | +$0.08 | 97% 476-14 (490) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.06 | $0.06 | -$11.5 | 47% 3878-4366 (8244) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.01 | $0.01 | -$1.16 | 41% 997-1416 (2413) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.5¢ | $0.6 | $0 | -$0.57 | 19% 2967-12558 (15525) |
Invested
$164.84
Value
$164.92
PnL
+$0.08
Record
97%
476-14 (490)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$11.5
Record
47%
3878-4366 (8244)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.16
Record
41%
997-1416 (2413)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.6
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.57
Record
19%
2967-12558 (15525)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.