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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on November 4?

Resolved No. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

20

No 79%

Total Value

$246.76

Combined PnL

-$50.31

Smart Money Signal

No

17 of 20 top traders (85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$246.76

Total Shares247

Combined PnL+$71.43

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares606

Combined PnL-$121.74

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 80.4¢	$86.08	$64	-$1.92	14% 461-2758 (3219)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 38.1¢	$30.1	$42.8	+$27.82	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 59.1¢	$19.59	$33.62	+$14.03	54% 10037-8676 (18713)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 72.8¢	$64.67	$18.86	+$5.3	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 38.6¢	$6.67	$17.27	+$10.6	27% 6849-18792 (25641)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 37¢	$6.01	$16.24	+$10.23	39% 1087-1679 (2766)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 63.3¢	$23.82	$15.39	-$1.02	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 54.7¢	$14.47	$15.21	+$3.51	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 35.3¢	$4.69	$13.28	+$8.59	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 15.5¢	$685.5	—	-$86.32	41% 799-1129 (1928)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 56.2¢	$9.5	$5.09	+$1.41	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.35	$5	+$2.65	32% 2522-5398 (7920)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$2.81	—	-$4.91	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 59.8¢	$30.5	—	-$30.5	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 76.2¢	$30.42	$0.01	+$0	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 47.4¢	—	—	+$0	40% 1050-1578 (2628)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 39.2¢	—	—	+$0	39% 1055-1660 (2715)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$26.29	—	-$9.76	53% 8228-7325 (15553)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 61.7¢	—	—	+$0	47% 1690-1872 (3562)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 69¢	—	—	+$0	56% 631-505 (1136)

Invested

$86.08

Value

$64

PnL

-$1.92

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

Invested

$30.1

Value

$42.8

PnL

+$27.82

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

Invested

$19.59

Value

$33.62

PnL

+$14.03

Record

54%

10037-8676 (18713)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$64.67

Value

$18.86

PnL

+$5.3

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$6.67

Value

$17.27

PnL

+$10.6

Record

27%

6849-18792 (25641)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.01

Value

$16.24

PnL

+$10.23

Record

39%

1087-1679 (2766)

Invested

$23.82

Value

$15.39

PnL

-$1.02

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$14.47

Value

$15.21

PnL

+$3.51

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.69

Value

$13.28

PnL

+$8.59

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Invested

$685.5

Value

—

PnL

-$86.32

Record

41%

799-1129 (1928)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$1.41

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

Invested

$2.35

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.65

Record

32%

2522-5398 (7920)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$2.81

Value

—

PnL

-$4.91

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$30.5

Value

—

PnL

-$30.5

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

Invested

$30.42

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

1050-1578 (2628)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1055-1660 (2715)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$26.29

Value

—

PnL

-$9.76

Record

53%

8228-7325 (15553)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1690-1872 (3562)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

631-505 (1136)

Smart Money Signal

No

17 of 20 top traders (85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xecae2bb0...8f2047

Slug

highest-temperature-in-guangzhou-on-november-4-2026-29c

Traders in this Market

Istaroth

No — $64

2B9S

No — $42.8

Poligarch

No — $33.62

qwen300.fund

No — $18.86

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

No — $17.27

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

No — $16.24

ghorrock

No — $15.39

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

No — $15.21

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

No — $13.28

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes — $0

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