Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on November 4?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $92 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$92.31
-$19.72
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $61.57 | $64.84 | +$3.26 | 58% 2488-1820 (4308) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 85.7¢ | $17.97 | $20.97 | +$3 | 53% 9914-8629 (18543) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 84.7¢ | $2.96 | $3.5 | +$0.53 | 44% 2185-2828 (5013) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $5.08 | $2.12 | -$2.96 | 18% 4259-20009 (24268) |
GH ghorrockCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $100.68 | $0.68 | -$0.49 | 58% 19331-14228 (33559) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $9.26 | $0.12 | -$9.14 | 42% 799-1116 (1915) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $14 | $0.08 | -$13.92 | 41% 1177-1666 (2843) |
Invested
$61.57
Value
$64.84
PnL
+$3.26
Record
58%
2488-1820 (4308)
Invested
$17.97
Value
$20.97
PnL
+$3
Record
53%
9914-8629 (18543)
Invested
$2.96
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0.53
Record
44%
2185-2828 (5013)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$5.08
Value
$2.12
PnL
-$2.96
Record
18%
4259-20009 (24268)
Invested
$100.68
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$0.49
Record
58%
19331-14228 (33559)
Invested
$9.26
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$9.14
Record
42%
799-1116 (1915)
Invested
$14
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$13.92
Record
41%
1177-1666 (2843)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.