Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on November 2?

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (46%) · No at 29¢ · $259 held · ends Nov 2

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 46%

Total Value

$258.58

Combined PnL

$6.82

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 29.4¢

-45% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$163.95

Total Shares247

Combined PnL+$61.95

No6 traders

Total Value$94.62

Total Shares704

Combined PnL-$55.13

Yes — 54%No — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$7.5	$79.05	+$72.63	53% 7522-6644 (14166)
GH ghorrockCTR	Noavg 84.3¢	$163.49	$30.46	-$81.07	57% 17226-12892 (30118)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 69.4¢	$44.35	$28.99	-$4.11	17% 393-1939 (2332)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 80.3¢	$17.41	$22.99	+$5.58	35% 698-1270 (1968)
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 62.7¢	$203.93	$18.24	+$104.81	61% 2332-1521 (3853)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$17.84	$17.2	-$0.64	37% 633-1096 (1729)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 12.7¢	$8.33	$14.89	+$6.56	38% 680-1090 (1770)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 82.4¢	$18.57	$13.82	-$4.75	35% 554-1008 (1562)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Noavg 41.3¢	$97.96	$13.53	-$84.42	48% 746-815 (1561)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 75.2¢	$12.73	$9.09	-$3.64	38% 751-1204 (1955)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$7.92	$5.52	-$2.39	42% 938-1305 (2243)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$5.87	$4.51	-$1.37	56% 3732-2932 (6664)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 12.6¢	$0.67	$0.3	-$0.36	21% 2257-8431 (10688)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$79.05

PnL

+$72.63

Record

53%

7522-6644 (14166)

ghorrockCTR

Invested

$163.49

Value

$30.46

PnL

-$81.07

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.35

Value

$28.99

PnL

-$4.11

Record

17%

393-1939 (2332)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.41

Value

$22.99

PnL

+$5.58

Record

35%

698-1270 (1968)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$203.93

Value

$18.24

PnL

+$104.81

Record

61%

2332-1521 (3853)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$17.84

Value

$17.2

PnL

-$0.64

Record

37%

633-1096 (1729)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$8.33

Value

$14.89

PnL

+$6.56

Record

38%

680-1090 (1770)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.57

Value

$13.82

PnL

-$4.75

Record

35%

554-1008 (1562)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Invested

$97.96

Value

$13.53

PnL

-$84.42

Record

48%

746-815 (1561)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.73

Value

$9.09

PnL

-$3.64

Record

38%

751-1204 (1955)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.92

Value

$5.52

PnL

-$2.39

Record

42%

938-1305 (2243)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.87

Value

$4.51

PnL

-$1.37

Record

56%

3732-2932 (6664)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.36

Record

21%

2257-8431 (10688)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.5%

29.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$217.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

317.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.