Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on November 15?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 100¢ · $370 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$370.39

Combined PnL

-$0.83

Smart Money Entry

97.3¢ → 99.7¢

+2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$367.53

Total Shares379

Combined PnL-$3.31

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.87

Total Shares64

Combined PnL+$2.48

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95.7¢	$133.01	$132.75	-$0.26	42% 760-1068 (1828)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$57.98	$57.3	-$0.68	53% 7392-6516 (13908)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$31.95	$31.85	-$0.11	50% 894-902 (1796)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$31.55	$31.46	-$0.09	47% 1212-1371 (2583)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$31.4	$31.43	+$0.03	52% 2195-1999 (4194)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$28.3	$28.18	-$0.12	52% 916-856 (1772)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$22.95	$22.85	-$0.1	53% 882-796 (1678)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$39.86	$19.86	-$1.84	43% 5181-7002 (12183)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$4.99	$4.97	-$0.02	58% 839-597 (1436)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$5	$4.89	-$0.11	99% 1517-23 (1540)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.38	$2.87	+$2.48	14% 98-587 (685)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$2.02	$2.01	-$0.01	49% 828-850 (1678)

241532532432

Invested

$133.01

Value

$132.75

PnL

-$0.26

Record

42%

760-1068 (1828)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$57.98

Value

$57.3

PnL

-$0.68

Record

53%

7392-6516 (13908)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$31.95

Value

$31.85

PnL

-$0.11

Record

50%

894-902 (1796)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$31.55

Value

$31.46

PnL

-$0.09

Record

47%

1212-1371 (2583)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$31.4

Value

$31.43

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$28.3

Value

$28.18

PnL

-$0.12

Record

52%

916-856 (1772)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$22.95

Value

$22.85

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

882-796 (1678)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$39.86

Value

$19.86

PnL

-$1.84

Record

43%

5181-7002 (12183)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.97

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

839-597 (1436)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

$4.89

PnL

-$0.11

Record

99%

1517-23 (1540)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

$2.87

PnL

+$2.48

Record

14%

98-587 (685)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.02

Value

$2.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

828-850 (1678)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.