Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on November 15?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 98¢ · $196 held · ends Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$196.28

Combined PnL

-$0.91

Smart Money Entry

90.3¢ → 98.4¢

+9% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$186.6

Total Shares209

Combined PnL-$1.99

Yes4 traders

Total Value$9.68

Total Shares51

Combined PnL+$1.08

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 80¢	$48	$44.4	-$3.6	53% 7392-6516 (13908)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$39.69	$39.48	-$0.2	58% 839-597 (1436)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97¢	$26.19	$26.19	-$0	49% 828-850 (1678)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$23.58	$25.28	+$1.7	57% 812-615 (1427)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$22.84	$22.77	-$0.07	53% 882-796 (1678)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 72¢	$9.21	$9.46	+$0.26	26% 44-123 (167)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$6.84	$6.85	+$0.01	47% 1212-1371 (2583)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$5.94	$5.89	-$0.05	59% 843-574 (1417)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$4.91	$4.9	-$0.02	50% 894-902 (1796)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$13.03	$4.52	-$1.82	52% 2195-1999 (4194)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.46	$3	+$2.54	14% 98-587 (685)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$1.41	$1.66	+$0.26	71% 919-377 (1296)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98¢	$1.38	$1.37	-$0.01	47% 870-964 (1834)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.4	$0.5	+$0.1	65% 4359-2377 (6736)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$44.4

PnL

-$3.6

Record

53%

7392-6516 (13908)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$39.69

Value

$39.48

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

839-597 (1436)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$26.19

Value

$26.19

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

828-850 (1678)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$23.58

Value

$25.28

PnL

+$1.7

Record

57%

812-615 (1427)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$22.84

Value

$22.77

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

882-796 (1678)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$9.21

Value

$9.46

PnL

+$0.26

Record

26%

44-123 (167)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.84

Value

$6.85

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

1212-1371 (2583)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$0.05

Record

59%

843-574 (1417)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.91

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

894-902 (1796)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.03

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$1.82

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

PnL

+$2.54

Record

14%

98-587 (685)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.66

PnL

+$0.26

Record

71%

919-377 (1296)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.37

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

870-964 (1834)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

65%

4359-2377 (6736)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.