Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on November 15?

14 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (74%) · No at 93¢ · $380 held · ends Nov 15

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 74%

Total Value

$379.99

Combined PnL

$14.4

Smart Money Entry

63.3¢ → 92.5¢

+46% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$369

Total Shares593

Combined PnL+$1.81

Yes5 traders

Total Value$10.98

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$12.59

No — 74%Yes — 26%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 56.9¢	$145.58	$132.99	-$12.59	53% 2329-2055 (4384)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$34.84	$36.26	+$1.42	59% 843-574 (1417)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 55¢	$36.67	$32.8	-$1.95	14% 98-587 (685)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 51.3¢	$30.8	$31.2	+$0.4	53% 7392-6516 (13908)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 91.2¢	$26.5	$27.16	+$0.67	52% 916-856 (1772)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 64.9¢	$19.91	$25.6	+$5.69	49% 828-850 (1678)
Haradwaith	Noavg 51¢	$111.19	$20.1	+$3.13	29% 266-655 (921)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$18.97	$19.67	+$0.7	47% 870-964 (1834)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$36.19	$17.61	+$5.17	43% 5181-7002 (12183)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 43.4¢	$5.29	$6.58	+$1.29	71% 919-377 (1296)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 91.2¢	$5.87	$6.01	+$0.15	58% 839-597 (1436)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 52¢	$6.65	$5.88	-$0.77	26% 44-123 (167)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 91¢	$4.7	$4.83	+$0.13	47% 1212-1371 (2583)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 92¢	$4.66	$4.46	-$0.2	57% 812-615 (1427)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 91¢	$4.55	$4.43	-$0.13	53% 882-796 (1678)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.16	$1.76	+$13.03	35% 3865-7145 (11010)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.6¢	$3.06	$1.3	-$1.76	65% 4359-2377 (6736)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$45.94	$0.91	+$0.16	42% 760-1068 (1828)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$0.57	$0.44	-$0.13	50% 894-902 (1796)

hello.67

Invested

$145.58

Value

$132.99

PnL

-$12.59

Record

53%

2329-2055 (4384)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$34.84

Value

$36.26

PnL

+$1.42

Record

59%

843-574 (1417)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$36.67

Value

$32.8

PnL

-$1.95

Record

14%

98-587 (685)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30.8

Value

$31.2

PnL

+$0.4

Record

53%

7392-6516 (13908)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$26.5

Value

$27.16

PnL

+$0.67

Record

52%

916-856 (1772)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$19.91

Value

$25.6

PnL

+$5.69

Record

49%

828-850 (1678)

Haradwaith

Invested

$111.19

Value

$20.1

PnL

+$3.13

Record

29%

266-655 (921)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$18.97

Value

$19.67

PnL

+$0.7

Record

47%

870-964 (1834)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$36.19

Value

$17.61

PnL

+$5.17

Record

43%

5181-7002 (12183)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.29

Value

$6.58

PnL

+$1.29

Record

71%

919-377 (1296)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.87

Value

$6.01

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

839-597 (1436)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$6.65

Value

$5.88

PnL

-$0.77

Record

26%

44-123 (167)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.83

PnL

+$0.13

Record

47%

1212-1371 (2583)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.66

Value

$4.46

PnL

-$0.2

Record

57%

812-615 (1427)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

882-796 (1678)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.16

Value

$1.76

PnL

+$13.03

Record

35%

3865-7145 (11010)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.06

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$1.76

Record

65%

4359-2377 (6736)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.94

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.16

Record

42%

760-1068 (1828)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

894-902 (1796)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.