Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (91%). 12 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on November 15?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 9.5¢ · $134 held · ends Nov 15

Yes91¢No9¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$134.5

Combined PnL

$11.13

Smart Money Entry

47.2¢ → 9.5¢

-80% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$96.79

Total Shares213

Combined PnL+$9.14

Yes2 traders

Total Value$37.71

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$1.99

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 75¢	$45	$44.4	-$0.6	53% 7392-6516 (13908)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 24.5¢	$29.69	$31.46	+$1.77	42% 760-1068 (1828)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$19.86	$18.73	-$1.13	52% 2195-1999 (4194)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Noavg 77¢	$9.86	$9.48	-$0.38	26% 44-123 (167)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 28.8¢	$8.4	$8.92	+$0.53	71% 919-377 (1296)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$6.03	$6.25	+$0.22	58% 839-597 (1436)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 21.5¢	$7.46	$3.89	+$6.23	52% 916-856 (1772)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$4.01	$3.1	+$11.47	43% 5181-7002 (12183)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$5.08	$2.93	-$2.15	50% 894-902 (1796)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$3.67	$1.96	-$1.71	53% 882-796 (1678)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$1.11	$1.56	+$0.45	47% 1212-1371 (2583)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 34.4¢	$4.6	$1	-$3.59	59% 843-574 (1417)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 8.7¢	$0.62	$0.53	-$0.09	57% 812-615 (1427)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$0.17	$0.29	+$0.12	49% 828-850 (1678)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$44.4

PnL

-$0.6

Record

53%

7392-6516 (13908)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.69

Value

$31.46

PnL

+$1.77

Record

42%

760-1068 (1828)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$19.86

Value

$18.73

PnL

-$1.13

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

TyshaCTR<$100

Invested

$9.86

Value

$9.48

PnL

-$0.38

Record

26%

44-123 (167)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.92

PnL

+$0.53

Record

71%

919-377 (1296)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.03

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$0.22

Record

58%

839-597 (1436)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$7.46

Value

$3.89

PnL

+$6.23

Record

52%

916-856 (1772)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$4.01

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$11.47

Record

43%

5181-7002 (12183)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$2.93

PnL

-$2.15

Record

50%

894-902 (1796)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$3.67

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$1.71

Record

53%

882-796 (1678)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0.45

Record

47%

1212-1371 (2583)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

PnL

-$3.59

Record

59%

843-574 (1417)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$0.09

Record

57%

812-615 (1427)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.12

Record

49%

828-850 (1678)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.0%

9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$811.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

911.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.