Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on November 15?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $190 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$190.47

Combined PnL

-$44.74

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 100¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$173.46

Total Shares194

Combined PnL-$10.48

Yes4 traders

Total Value$17.01

Total Shares549

Combined PnL-$34.26

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$88.11	$83.47	-$4.64	42% 783-1092 (1875)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$57.7	$53.28	-$4.42	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 90.3¢	$21.24	$20.91	-$0.33	71% 939-382 (1321)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$12.24	$11.36	-$0.88	26% 44-124 (168)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$29	$9.89	-$19.11	52% 936-867 (1803)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.65	$4.44	-$0.21	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.7	$4.33	-$8.37	24% 779-2522 (3301)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$1.86	-$3.59	42% 5200-7083 (12283)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.56	$0.93	-$3.19	28% 3288-8374 (11662)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$88.11

Value

$83.47

PnL

-$4.64

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$57.7

Value

$53.28

PnL

-$4.42

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$21.24

Value

$20.91

PnL

-$0.33

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$12.24

Value

$11.36

PnL

-$0.88

Record

26%

44-124 (168)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29

Value

$9.89

PnL

-$19.11

Record

52%

936-867 (1803)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.44

PnL

-$0.21

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.7

Value

$4.33

PnL

-$8.37

Record

24%

779-2522 (3301)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$3.59

Record

42%

5200-7083 (12283)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.56

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$3.19

Record

28%

3288-8374 (11662)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.