Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on November 14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $490 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$490.38

Combined PnL

$7.56

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 99.5¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$480.98

Total Shares484

Combined PnL+$35.73

Yes4 traders

Total Value$9.41

Total Shares392

Combined PnL-$28.17

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 92.4¢	$452.31	$421.32	+$34.03	40% 620-939 (1559)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$69.06	$50.99	+$1.63	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$19.71	$4.74	-$14.98	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.21	$3.52	-$10.33	31% 146-327 (473)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$3.16	$3.16	+$0	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$2.94	$2.96	+$0.02	58% 699-503 (1202)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$2.5	$2.55	+$0.05	99% 1195-12 (1207)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.89	$1.03	-$2.86	55% 1088-874 (1962)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.12	$0.12	+$0	65% 4289-2310 (6599)

241532532432

Invested

$452.31

Value

$421.32

PnL

+$34.03

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$69.06

Value

$50.99

PnL

+$1.63

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.71

Value

$4.74

PnL

-$14.98

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.21

Value

$3.52

PnL

-$10.33

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.16

Value

$3.16

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$2.94

Value

$2.96

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.89

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$2.86

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.