Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on November 14?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 84¢ · $294 held · ends Nov 14

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$293.55

Combined PnL

$15.01

Smart Money Entry

79.9¢ → 83.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$219.01

Total Shares268

Combined PnL+$13.7

Yes4 traders

Total Value$74.54

Total Shares383

Combined PnL+$1.31

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 79.3¢	$133.79	$106.69	+$6.31	31% 114-255 (369)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 78.5¢	$114.55	$84.63	+$8.99	55% 1078-871 (1949)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.2¢	$36	$35.6	-$0.4	57% 2248-1724 (3972)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 88¢	$25.52	$23.78	-$1.74	13% 65-441 (506)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.9¢	$23.8	$22.75	-$1.05	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.9¢	$9.21	$11.76	+$2.55	39% 579-908 (1487)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$4.23	$4.43	+$0.21	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.76	$3.9	+$0.14	73% 795-298 (1093)

Haradwaith

Invested

$133.79

Value

$106.69

PnL

+$6.31

Record

31%

114-255 (369)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$114.55

Value

$84.63

PnL

+$8.99

Record

55%

1078-871 (1949)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36

Value

$35.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

57%

2248-1724 (3972)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$25.52

Value

$23.78

PnL

-$1.74

Record

13%

65-441 (506)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.8

Value

$22.75

PnL

-$1.05

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.21

Value

$11.76

PnL

+$2.55

Record

39%

579-908 (1487)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.23

Value

$4.43

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$3.76

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.14

Record

73%

795-298 (1093)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.