Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on November 14?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 2.5¢ · $60 held · ends Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$59.58

Combined PnL

-$91.66

Smart Money Entry

27¢ → 2.5¢

-91% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$19.22

Total Shares449

Combined PnL-$94.17

No5 traders

Total Value$40.36

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$2.51

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 27.7¢	$420.51	$16.41	-$81.55	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 88.1¢	$24.86	$12.4	+$0.81	72% 829-328 (1157)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$12.4	$9.82	+$1.68	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$8.94	$8.88	-$0.06	58% 703-504 (1207)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$8.05	$8.15	+$0.1	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 27.7¢	$122.86	$2.43	-$12.52	40% 625-948 (1573)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98¢	$1.13	$1.12	-$0.01	48% 762-815 (1577)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.28	$0.22	-$0.06	44% 5045-6487 (11532)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.2	$0.16	-$0.04	51% 787-755 (1542)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$420.51

Value

$16.41

PnL

-$81.55

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$24.86

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$0.81

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$12.4

Value

$9.82

PnL

+$1.68

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$8.94

Value

$8.88

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$8.05

Value

$8.15

PnL

+$0.1

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$122.86

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$12.52

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$0.01

Record

48%

762-815 (1577)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.06

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.6%

2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2665.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

2765.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.