Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on November 14?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 91¢ · $184 held · ends Nov 14

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$183.85

Combined PnL

$38.65

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$112.28

Total Shares347

Combined PnL+$29.73

No7 traders

Total Value$71.57

Total Shares84

Combined PnL+$8.93

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 28.7¢	$41.1	$48.6	+$7.5	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.3¢	$49.27	$48.21	+$11.41	40% 625-948 (1573)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 75.3¢	$44.26	$34.63	+$0.48	72% 829-328 (1157)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.89	$14.12	+$10.23	55% 1089-876 (1965)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 57¢	$14.22	$14.05	+$7.47	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 81.1¢	$10.37	$11.17	+$0.8	49% 736-769 (1505)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 73¢	$3.65	$3.88	+$0.23	65% 4292-2315 (6607)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 57¢	$3.37	$3.56	+$0.19	58% 703-504 (1207)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.7	$3.5	-$0.21	51% 787-755 (1542)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$0.76	$1.34	+$0.58	44% 5045-6487 (11532)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 72¢	$0.83	$0.78	-$0.05	58% 684-501 (1185)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.1

Value

$48.6

PnL

+$7.5

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.27

Value

$48.21

PnL

+$11.41

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$44.26

Value

$34.63

PnL

+$0.48

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.89

Value

$14.12

PnL

+$10.23

Record

55%

1089-876 (1965)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.22

Value

$14.05

PnL

+$7.47

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.37

Value

$11.17

PnL

+$0.8

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$0.23

Record

65%

4292-2315 (6607)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.37

Value

$3.56

PnL

+$0.19

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$0.21

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$1.34

PnL

+$0.58

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

684-501 (1185)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.