Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (88%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on November 14?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 12¢ · $170 held · ends Nov 14

Yes88¢No12¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$170.19

Combined PnL

-$48.56

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 12¢

-85% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 88%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$119.18

Total Shares207

Combined PnL-$61.57

Yes6 traders

Total Value$51.01

Total Shares89

Combined PnL+$13.01

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Noavg 86.9¢	$119.53	$77.8	-$41.73	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$77.86	$33.53	-$20.67	72% 829-328 (1157)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.89	$18.83	+$14.94	55% 1089-876 (1965)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$73.49	$17.13	-$11.35	40% 625-948 (1573)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1.9	$4.92	+$3.02	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 91¢	$5.65	$4.78	-$0.86	44% 5045-6487 (11532)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 31.6¢	$3.56	$4.22	+$0.66	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$3.35	$3.45	+$0.1	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 68¢	$2.03	$1.94	-$0.09	63% 716-429 (1145)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$33.9	$1.89	+$7.16	36% 3731-6727 (10458)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$1.44	$1.7	+$0.26	48% 762-815 (1577)

hello.67CTR

Invested

$119.53

Value

$77.8

PnL

-$41.73

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$77.86

Value

$33.53

PnL

-$20.67

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.89

Value

$18.83

PnL

+$14.94

Record

55%

1089-876 (1965)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.49

Value

$17.13

PnL

-$11.35

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$4.92

PnL

+$3.02

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.65

Value

$4.78

PnL

-$0.86

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$3.56

Value

$4.22

PnL

+$0.66

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.1

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$2.03

Value

$1.94

PnL

-$0.09

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.9

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$7.16

Record

36%

3731-6727 (10458)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.26

Record

48%

762-815 (1577)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 88%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.6%

12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$637.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

737.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.