Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on November 14?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $37 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$36.69

Combined PnL

-$20.53

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$35.13

Total Shares36

Combined PnL+$2.22

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.56

Total Shares304

Combined PnL-$22.75

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88.8¢	$72.4	$29.63	+$2.07	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 82.3¢	$2.62	$2.84	+$0.22	51% 790-758 (1548)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$2.73	$2.66	-$0.07	49% 739-774 (1513)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.89	$0.43	-$3.46	55% 1091-888 (1979)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.8¢	$9.06	$0.4	-$8.66	55% 2277-1842 (4119)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.55	$0.28	-$2.27	50% 704-694 (1398)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.4¢	$41.79	$0.23	-$3.5	72% 841-329 (1170)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.36	$0.15	-$1.21	27% 679-1844 (2523)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$46.59	$0.08	-$3.54	40% 633-964 (1597)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$0.11	$0	-$0.1	14% 79-505 (584)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$72.4

Value

$29.63

PnL

+$2.07

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.62

Value

$2.84

PnL

+$0.22

Record

51%

790-758 (1548)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.73

Value

$2.66

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

739-774 (1513)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.89

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$3.46

Record

55%

1091-888 (1979)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.06

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$8.66

Record

55%

2277-1842 (4119)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$2.27

Record

50%

704-694 (1398)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.79

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$3.5

Record

72%

841-329 (1170)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$1.21

Record

27%

679-1844 (2523)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.59

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$3.54

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

14%

79-505 (584)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.