Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on November 12?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 100¢ · $117 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 13%
$116.52
-$23.95
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.8¢ | $116.23 | $116.38 | +$0.15 | 99% 398-3 (401) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $12.12 | $0.07 | -$12.06 | 68% 2115-1000 (3115) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.55 | $0.02 | -$3.53 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.75 | $0.02 | -$2.73 | 45% 1109-1383 (2492) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.73 | $0.02 | -$2.71 | 18% 74-331 (405) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.98 | $0.01 | -$1.97 | 28% 525-1353 (1878) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.91 | $0.01 | -$0.9 | 40% 1374-2022 (3396) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.19 | $0 | -$0.19 | 32% 2924-6249 (9173) |
Invested
$116.23
Value
$116.38
PnL
+$0.15
Record
99%
398-3 (401)
Invested
$12.12
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$12.06
Record
68%
2115-1000 (3115)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$3.55
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$3.53
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2.73
Record
45%
1109-1383 (2492)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2.71
Record
18%
74-331 (405)
Invested
$1.98
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.97
Record
28%
525-1353 (1878)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.9
Record
40%
1374-2022 (3396)
Invested
$0.19
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.19
Record
32%
2924-6249 (9173)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.