Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on November 12?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $60 held · ends Nov 12

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$60.33

Combined PnL

$0.01

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$60.17

Total Shares63

Combined PnL-$0.01

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.16

Total Shares4

Combined PnL+$0.02

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 96¢	$27.57	$27.43	-$0.14	44% 1079-1378 (2457)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 96¢	$21.12	$21.12	+$0	36% 3004-5342 (8346)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 95¢	$9.5	$9.6	+$0.1	38% 1223-1986 (3209)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$1.99	$2.02	+$0.03	29% 2516-6167 (8683)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.14	$0.16	+$0.02	53% 325-288 (613)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$27.57

Value

$27.43

PnL

-$0.14

Record

44%

1079-1378 (2457)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$21.12

Value

$21.12

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

3004-5342 (8346)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0.1

Record

38%

1223-1986 (3209)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$1.99

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$0.03

Record

29%

2516-6167 (8683)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

325-288 (613)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.