Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on November 12?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 31¢ · $173 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$172.58
$30.05
Research grade
NeutralYes at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 27.2¢ | $105.94 | $136.29 | +$30.35 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $15.18 | $15.4 | +$0.22 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $13.05 | $12.42 | -$0.62 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $6.9 | $7 | +$0.1 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $1.47 | $1.47 | +$0 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
Invested
$105.94
Value
$136.29
PnL
+$30.35
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$15.18
Value
$15.4
PnL
+$0.22
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$13.05
Value
$12.42
PnL
-$0.62
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
Invested
$6.9
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Invested
$1.47
Value
$1.47
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.