Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 49¢ · $40 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$39.89
-$2.84
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $14.22 | $14.37 | +$0.15 | 44% 1079-1378 (2457) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $12.54 | $10.34 | -$2.2 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $9.6 | $9.5 | -$0.1 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 53.5¢ | $5.35 | $4.7 | -$0.65 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $1.03 | $0.99 | -$0.04 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
Invested
$14.22
Value
$14.37
PnL
+$0.15
Record
44%
1079-1378 (2457)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$12.54
Value
$10.34
PnL
-$2.2
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$9.5
PnL
-$0.1
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Invested
$5.35
Value
$4.7
PnL
-$0.65
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
Invested
$1.03
Value
$0.99
PnL
-$0.04
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.