Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 85¢ · $68 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$67.93
-$0.09
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 86.9¢ | $26.28 | $25.71 | -$0.57 | 44% 1079-1378 (2457) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $19.6 | $19.14 | -$0.46 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 83.4¢ | $8.87 | $9.14 | +$0.27 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $8.6 | $8.7 | +$0.1 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $2.86 | $3.41 | +$0.55 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $1.81 | $1.83 | +$0.02 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
Invested
$26.28
Value
$25.71
PnL
-$0.57
Record
44%
1079-1378 (2457)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.6
Value
$19.14
PnL
-$0.46
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$8.87
Value
$9.14
PnL
+$0.27
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$8.7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
Invested
$2.86
Value
$3.41
PnL
+$0.55
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$1.83
PnL
+$0.02
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.