Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $83 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$83.36
$2.19
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.93 | $29.78 | -$0.15 | 44% 1079-1378 (2457) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $21.24 | $21.77 | +$0.53 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $18.74 | $19.83 | +$1.09 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $9.2 | $9.9 | +$0.7 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $2.06 | $2.08 | +$0.02 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
Invested
$29.93
Value
$29.78
PnL
-$0.15
Record
44%
1079-1378 (2457)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$21.24
Value
$21.77
PnL
+$0.53
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$18.74
Value
$19.83
PnL
+$1.09
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$9.9
PnL
+$0.7
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
Invested
$2.06
Value
$2.08
PnL
+$0.02
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.