Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $115 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$115.48
$3.01
96.8¢ → 99.4¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $30.07 | $30.07 | +$0 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.82 | -$0.09 | 14% 55-329 (384) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $19.6 | $21.87 | +$2.27 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $21.75 | $21.69 | -$0.07 | 27% 499-1348 (1847) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.5¢ | $9.05 | $9.94 | +$0.89 | 54% 445-377 (822) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $2.09 | $2.09 | +$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
Invested
$30.07
Value
$30.07
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.82
PnL
-$0.09
Record
14%
55-329 (384)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.6
Value
$21.87
PnL
+$2.27
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$21.75
Value
$21.69
PnL
-$0.07
Record
27%
499-1348 (1847)
Invested
$9.05
Value
$9.94
PnL
+$0.89
Record
54%
445-377 (822)
Invested
$2.09
Value
$2.09
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.