Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $235 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$234.59
-$1.06
97.1¢ → 97.9¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $120.75 | $120.81 | +$0.06 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $45.11 | $44.44 | -$0.67 | 85% 23-4 (27) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $19.32 | $19.33 | +$0.01 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $19.6 | $19.32 | -$0.28 | 50% 4547-4458 (9005) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $16.19 | $16.01 | -$0.17 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $14.68 | $14.67 | -$0.01 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
Invested
$120.75
Value
$120.81
PnL
+$0.06
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Invested
$45.11
Value
$44.44
PnL
-$0.67
Record
85%
23-4 (27)
Invested
$19.32
Value
$19.33
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.6
Value
$19.32
PnL
-$0.28
Record
50%
4547-4458 (9005)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$16.19
Value
$16.01
PnL
-$0.17
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$14.68
Value
$14.67
PnL
-$0.01
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.