Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 50¢ · $93 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$92.96
-$2.96
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $43.24 | $43.24 | +$0 | 24% 158-513 (671) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $23 | $21.62 | -$1.38 | 85% 22-4 (26) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $12.59 | $12.59 | +$0 | 86% 438-72 (510) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $10.2 | $9.4 | -$0.8 | 50% 4490-4436 (8926) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $6.89 | $6.11 | -$0.78 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
Invested
$43.24
Value
$43.24
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
158-513 (671)
Invested
$23
Value
$21.62
PnL
-$1.38
Record
85%
22-4 (26)
Invested
$12.59
Value
$12.59
PnL
+$0
Record
86%
438-72 (510)
balthazar<$100Invested
$10.2
Value
$9.4
PnL
-$0.8
Record
50%
4490-4436 (8926)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$6.89
Value
$6.11
PnL
-$0.78
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.