Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 73¢ · $140 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$140.45
-$2.75
73.7¢ → 73¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 74.4¢ | $77.36 | $74.88 | -$2.48 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $33.58 | $33.12 | -$0.46 | 85% 23-4 (27) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $15.2 | $14.7 | -$0.5 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 68.9¢ | $11.41 | $12.18 | +$0.77 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $5.65 | $5.57 | -$0.08 | 84% 481-91 (572) |
Invested
$77.36
Value
$74.88
PnL
-$2.48
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Invested
$33.58
Value
$33.12
PnL
-$0.46
Record
85%
23-4 (27)
Invested
$15.2
Value
$14.7
PnL
-$0.5
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$11.41
Value
$12.18
PnL
+$0.77
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$5.65
Value
$5.57
PnL
-$0.08
Record
84%
481-91 (572)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.