Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $119 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$119.07
$0.03
96.5¢ → 96.3¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $45.09 | $44.57 | -$0.52 | 85% 23-4 (27) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $20.24 | $20.01 | +$0.93 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $19.4 | $19.38 | -$0.02 | 50% 4547-4458 (9005) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $19.4 | $19.2 | -$0.2 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $16.07 | $15.91 | -$0.16 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
Invested
$45.09
Value
$44.57
PnL
-$0.52
Record
85%
23-4 (27)
Invested
$20.24
Value
$20.01
PnL
+$0.93
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.4
Value
$19.38
PnL
-$0.02
Record
50%
4547-4458 (9005)
Invested
$19.4
Value
$19.2
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$16.07
Value
$15.91
PnL
-$0.16
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.