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NoNoYes
balthazar<$100No
Istaroth<$100No
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on November 1?
Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
5
No 67%
Total Value
$57.17
Combined PnL
-$8.46
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$57.17
Total Shares57
Combined PnL+$7.37
Yes1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares338
Combined PnL-$15.82
No — 80%Yes — 20%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.6¢ | $35.85 | $39.75 | +$3.9 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 80.1¢ | $13.95 | $17.42 | +$3.47 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $15.83 | — | -$15.82 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21345-13642 (34987) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 92.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
$35.85
Value
$39.75
PnL
+$3.9
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
$13.95
Value
$17.42
PnL
+$3.47
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$15.83
Value
—
PnL
-$15.82
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21345-13642 (34987)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
365-1641 (2006)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x427b84da...0868e3
Slug
highest-temperature-in-guangzhou-on-november-1-2026-34c