Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on October 29?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 56¢ · $446 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$446.46
-$54.84
60.6¢ → 55.5¢
-8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Yesavg 49.8¢ | $161.88 | $162.6 | -$25.3 | 55% 320-260 (580) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 60.9¢ | $176.62 | $147 | -$29.62 | 50% 1704-1692 (3396) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 56.1¢ | $125.1 | $113.99 | -$0.89 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 56.1¢ | $63.99 | $57.8 | -$6.95 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43.4¢ | $49.48 | $56.19 | +$6.05 | |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.5¢ | $19.61 | $19.38 | -$0.23 | 60% 1670-1125 (2795) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 46.4¢ | $3.19 | $3.49 | +$0.3 | 57% 13340-10198 (23538) |
Invested
$161.88
Value
$162.6
PnL
-$25.3
Record
55%
320-260 (580)
Invested
$176.62
Value
$147
PnL
-$29.62
Record
50%
1704-1692 (3396)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$125.1
Value
$113.99
PnL
-$0.89
Record
23%
287-958 (1245)
Both legs:
Invested
$19.61
Value
$19.38
PnL
-$0.23
Record
60%
1670-1125 (2795)
Invested
$3.19
Value
$3.49
PnL
+$0.3
Record
57%
13340-10198 (23538)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.